Forecasting the Consumer Price Index for Food Commodities in Libya Using the Exponential Smoothing Model for the Period (2025–2030)

By: Abdelbaset Hammouda , Khaled Al-Beidi , Wasim Al-Buhailil

Libyan authority for scientific research

Issue: Vol 24 |First Issue |2025

article language: Arabic

Abstract:

In recent years, the Libyan economy has experienced a continuous increase in food commodity prices due to several factors that have widened the gap between production and consumption, coupled with growing human needs and the relative scarcity of natural resources. This study aims to forecast the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food commodities in Libya during the period 2025–2030, using monthly data from January 2004 to March 2024, based on information from the Bureau of Statistics and Census and the Central Bank of Libya. To achieve its objectives, the research employed statistical and mathematical methods, including descriptive measures, trend equations, and the double exponential smoothing model. The results indicated that the double exponential smoothing model provided the best forecasting performance according to several criteria, notably the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Theil’s U coefficient. The analysis revealed a continued upward trend in the CPI for food commodities, which is expected to reach approximately 388% by the end of 2030. Based on these findings, the study recommends enhancing the balance between supply and demand for food products, increasing investment opportunities, stabilizing the exchange rate, and strengthening the role of research, particularly in the field of agricultural production.

Keywords: Forecasting, inflation, price index, exponential smoothing, Libya.